Drop chances: how many kills a rare drop really takes

A drop rate tells you the chance on one kill. It does not tell you when the drop will come. The abyssal whip drops from an abyssal demon at 1 in 1,024, and that number is the same on your first kill and your two-thousandth.

The rate is not a countdown

Because every kill rolls on its own, 1,024 kills do not guarantee a whip. After 1,024 kills, 63.2% of players have at least one and 36.8% have none. After 100 kills only 9.3% have one.

The kills a drop takes grow quickly as you ask for more certainty. Half of all players get the whip within 710 kills, 90% within 2,357 and 99% within 4,714. A player at 3,000 kills without one has been unlucky, but is not owed anything: the next kill is still 1 in 1,024.

Open the abyssal whip in the drop chances tool to see these numbers for the whole table at once. Change the kill count to the number you plan to do, and the certainty you want, and every item updates.

What a whole trip is worth

The tool also adds up the table. For a number of kills it gives how many of each item you can expect on average, and what they come to at Grand Exchange guide prices. Common drops such as infernal ashes, which come with every kill, add up over a trip and can be worth more than the rare drop you are hunting.

When a modifier changes the rate

Many drops change with luck or other items, and the tool shows each drop's conditions under it. With tier 3 luck the whip becomes 1 in 993, which brings 90% certainty down to 2,286 kills. Type that rate into "A rate of your own" to see the same figures for your setup. Rare drops that need a Slayer task, such as the abyssal wand, say so in their conditions.

Several rolls per kill

Some sources roll their table more than once per kill. The tool counts every roll, so a source that rolls three times shows the chance per kill, not per roll.